As promised, the following is a summary of Thursday's presentation on Canadian climate change policy. It starts with the Turning the Corner Plan. PM Harper promised a "Made In Canada" approach, and came out with the Turning the Corner Plan in 2007 when John Baird was appointed Minister of Environment. The plan is actually only a proposal with no regulatory legal spine. It outlines a target of reducing Canada's greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below 2006 levels by 2020 - which amounts to a 3% increase above 1990 levels. [When we ratified Kyoto, our voluntary committment was for 6% below 1990 levels - a difference of 9%!)] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) insists that 1990 must remain the baseline year if we are to reduce emissions enough to stay below a 2 degree C rise in global average temperature. This target is almost impossible now - we have already gone too far. Experts are saying we are already committed to a 2.4 degree C increase in temperature, meaning loss of biodiversity, significant changes in weather patterns, and increased sea-level rise.
Turning the Corner also outlines intensity targets, which means for every increase in production of a given emission, there is lower greenhouse gas emissions. This means emissions will continue to increase, at a decreasing rate. There will be a net gain. The plan was updated in March, but no details have been released yet.
The Plan treats the Oil Sands with special consideration. New industries in the Oil Sands are given a grace period to 2011 when they will be required to use Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology (as yet under development, and unproven) to stash away some of their emissions. Existing industries will have until 2018, leaving only 2 years for Canada's largest source of emissions to contribute to Canada's reduction targets.
The Plan also includes a carbon offset program, where industry can pay as little as $15 /tonne of CO2 for up to 70% of their emissions. An additional 10% of emission credits can be bought from the Clean Development Mechanism. The Plan outlines a gradual increase on the price of carbon until it reaches $65/tonne in 2012; but any mistake or errors in the price increases (political or otherwise) will mean it will be cheaper for industry to simply buy off their emissions rather than reduce them.
Obama's election to the Presidency in the United States will have considerable impact on Canada's climate change policy. Due to the free trade agreements for goods between Canada and the US, our two countries will have to maintain policies that are very closely coupled; carbon taxes or other measures could potentially raise the costs of materials and goods being traded, rendering them less attractive for import. However, Obama is citing much more ambitious targets of 80% below 1990 emissions levels by 2050, using cap and trade and 'polluter-pays' policies, and investing in renewable energy. These will be very difficult targets to meet, and may be adjusted over the coming years, but it puts the pressure on Canada to smarten up a bit.
Obama also is fortunate to have strong pressure from many progressive states to adopt stricter policies on climate change. Some Canadian provinces are also trying their best. British Columbia is the first to come to mind with their recently-implemented carbon tax, and an ambitious emission reduction plan. Ontario had set reasonable targets of 6% below 1990 by 2015, 15% by 2020, and 80% by 2050, but there are no strong policies or strategies to acheive these targets. Quebec has managed to curtail emissions growth since 1990, and has actually reduced emissions by 5.5% below 2006 levels. And then there's Alberta. But I'll save Alberta for it's own posting later in the week.
The bottom line is that the federal goverment has set itself up for failure intentionally, by creating weak targets and regulatory frameworks riddled with cop-outs for the industries. If we are to have any hope of reaching the internationally-agreed targets of 25-40% below 1990 levels, then Canada will have to act immediately and with robust regulations and policies in place. I try to remain optimistic that there is still a chance of this happening, but with ever passing conference I attend, and with each consecutive "fossil of the day" award that Canada wins for being obstructionist or delaying progress, my hope dwindles. Success will require enormous public pressure, an about-face of the energy industry and major businesses, and a new perspective within the federal government.
editor's note: The book cover illustrated above is an excellent book for summarizing Canada's climate change policy, the history behind it, and how it may be possible to still reach our targets (or impossible?) . Recommended reading!!
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